Pharmaceutical companies will struggle to profit from the cardiovascular disease (CVD) market over the next decade despite growing drug usage, says Datamonitor.
New research by the independent business analyst predicts that the CVD pharma market will grow from $99bn in 2008 to $107bn in 2018, though AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk are the only companies expected to generate positive sales growth over the period.
In its Cardiovascular and Metabolic Market Overview, Datamonitor expects the strong growth in CVD drug usage to be driven by the increase in patient populations, early diagnosis and early initiation of drug therapy as healthcare providers target complications associated with obesity.
Dr Anthony Nealon, report author and Senior Healthcare Analyst at Datamonitor, said: “The CVD market is one of the most mature pharma markets and the traditional drivers – hypertension and dyslipidemia – will be heavily impacted by patent expiries and generic competition.”
Generic competition is expected to impact Pfizer’s Lipitor and BMS/sanofi-aventis’ Plavix, but also other blockbuster drugs in the CVD market, such as Merck’s Cozaar, Novartis’ Diovan and Takeda’s Actos.
Datamonitor argues that weak development pipelines in hypertension and dyslipidaemia will not be able to replace revenues lost to generic competition. “This is due to current marketed drugs offering a wide range of therapy options for treatment,” said Dr Nealon. “Plus, there are no remaining significant clinical unmet needs to spur on development candidates.”
AstraZeneca is forecast to generate strong growth from its dyslipidaemia drug Crestor (rosuvastatin), as well as from late-stage pipeline drugs Brilinta and Onglyza. Novo Nordisk is the only other CVD company forecast to generate positive sales growth during this period, due to its market-leading position in insulin therapy.
However, Datamonitor adds, this decline will be offset by growth in diabetes and thrombosis as new drugs able to meet significant unmet clinical needs for patients reach the market. “This market growth will see diabetes become the largest therapy market in the seven major markets with sales of $37bn in 2018,” said Dr Nealon.